United States – Robers Redfield, who used to serve as the CDC director, has said that he does believe there will be a bird flu pandemic—it is just a question of when.
Current Bird Flu Situation
NewsNation invited Redfield on Friday to discuss the emerging worries regarding bird flu. The virus has already infected dozens of cattle across the country, and the WHO stated that the first human casualty resulting from the virus was in Mexico, as reported by The Hills.
“I really do think it’s very likely that we will, at some time; it’s not a question of if, it’s more of a question of when we will have a bird flu pandemic,” Redfield said.
High Mortality Rate in Humans
He also pointed out that bird flu has a high mortality rate whenever it jumps to humans as opposed to COVID-19. Redfield estimates that it’s most likely that “the mortality is 25 to 50 percent mortality. ” NewsNation reported that the death rate for COVID was 0.6 percent.
The CDC reported the third case of a human diagnosed with the virus at the end of May since March. All three cases reported among the farmworkers were isolated. Some of the symptoms have been a dry cough with no fever and conjunctivitis, commonly referred to as ‘pink eye.’
There are no hints that the virus is directly transmitted between people until now. Redfield explained that he understands perfectly well what needs to occur for the virus to reach that point since he conducts laboratory work with it.
Redfield said that five amino acids must be altered in the key receptor for bird flu to develop a penchant to bind with a human receptor “and then be able to go human to human, as observed in COVID-19.”
“Once the virus gains the ability to attach to the human receptor and then go human to human, that’s when you’re going to have the pandemic,” he said. “And as I said, I think it’s just a matter of time.”
Redfield said he does not know how long it will take for the five amino acids to alter but since it has been identified in cattle feed lots across the nation he admitted getting worried.
Monitoring and Future Risks
Over 40 cattle herds across the country have already tested positive for the virus. The CDC monitors the places that treat wastewater to identify where the virus is, but the agency clarified that people are unlikely to get sick with the virus at the moment.
This becomes worrying because cattle live in close contact with pigs and because the virus is capable of mutating from pigs to human beings. Nevertheless, he continued to propose that there is more danger to the disease to be lab-grown, as reported by The Hills.
“I know exactly what amino acids I have to change because in 2012, against my recommendation, the scientists that did these experiments actually published them,” he said. “So, the recipe for how to make bird flu highly [infectious] for humans is already out there.”